Ukraine’s Shocking Invasion of Russia Catches Putin Off Guard, Leaving Him Stunned

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In the early morning hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian Army launched a surprise attack on Russia’s Kursk Oblast. About two brigades, or 1500 to 2000 soldiers, are believed to be the attacking force. The attack quickly overran Russian positions and seized more than 200 square miles of Russian territory. It also seized the pumping station which controls all Russian gas flowing to Europe.

The U.S. government, Ukrainian officials, and Russian officials have all confirmed the attack. This has stunned Moscow and appears to involve the use of armored fighting vehicles donated by the United States to Kyiv and its European partners. Despite its previous restrictions on the use of American weapons, the Biden administration did not object to this development.

The surprise attack on Kursk (about 330 miles south-east of Moscow) seemed to be a way to bring the war to Russia where many don’t feel any direct effects of a conflict that has destroyed many Ukrainian towns and cities and displaced millions. The surprise attack on Kursk, about 330 miles south of Moscow, may have been intended to divert Russian forces from other locations along the front where Ukraine’s army has steadily lost territory in recent months. Analysts said Kyiv may be trying to gain leverage in future negotiations with Moscow.

The previous offensives against Russia were led primarily by militant groups that opposed President Vladimir Putin, but who were not affiliated with the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This attack, however, appears to have involved several thousand soldiers, including elite assault brigades with tanks and vehicles from Germany and the United States. According to Russian officials, and war-supporting military bloggers, they crossed the border on Tuesday from Sumy.

Biden’s national security apparatus was caught off guard; this may be why the Ukrainians were able to achieve tactical and operational surprises. Putin was not pleased.

Kirby stated that US officials would “reach out to our Ukrainian colleagues to gain a better understanding” of the situation in Kursk Oblast (Russia).

He also said that the US policy on allowing Ukraine to use American weapons “to target immediate threats just across the border” has not changed.

The Russians informed the world on Tuesday, August 6, about the Ukrainians’ attempts to invade the territory of Kursk Oblast.

Russian propagandists, military bloggers, and others claim that Ukrainian forces have crossed the border. Vladimir Putin, the Russian leader, called it a “provocation”.

The situation is not entirely clear. The Russians and Ukrainians have not offered much.

Where did the Ukrainians get their troops?

The majority of the troops appear to have come from the Belarus/Ukraine border. Lukashenko retreated his troops from Ukraine’s border on 13 July. On the Ukrainian side, we see Stryker Armored Combat Vehicles, as well as a mixture of tanks. This indicates the presence of a mechanized brigade formed in the spring of 2023. It’s safe to assume that Ukraine has assigned a strengthened brigade for the attack.

What happened?

Don’t tell the Tsar anything unpleasant. The invasion of Ukraine took place the way it did because the FSB directorate in Ukraine responsible for intelligence gave optimistic reports on the desire for an Anschluss by Ukraine and stated that the Ukrainian Army wouldn’t fight. Bloomberg reports that something similar occurred this time.

Bloomberg reported that Gerasimov, and other top officials, “seemed to dismiss intelligence warnings” that Ukrainian soldiers had gathered near the border of Russia’s western Kursk Region as early as two weeks before the attack.

Bloomberg reported that the source did not mention that Russian President Vladimir Putin had also been uninformed about the troop buildup.

True or false? It’s difficult to tell. It’s hard to tell. The Ukrainians, on the other hand, have enough air defense resources to make those areas difficult targets. I guess that if Ukrainian soldiers were spotted they were mistakenly assumed to be Ukrainian reinforcements fighting along the Russian border at Kharkiv Oblast. As I noted in my updates the Ukrainians made much fuss about placing troops in this region after Kadyrov’s Chechens briefly invaded Sumy Oblast. You can bet that no one wanted the job of telling Putin: “Boss I think we are about to be intruded.”

Telegram channels claim that massing Ukrainian troops had been reported and known.

Line of Advance

Inside the Kremlin

Here are some amazing shots of Putin at his von Stauffenberg desk.

There are always nukes.

Objectives

This offensive is limited in scope. This is a humiliation for the Russian government, as this is the first invasion of Russia since Operation Barbarossa. Karma was due to visit the house of Russia, given its recent history of encroaching on neighboring countries. The offensive will have operational objectives, such as the main rail line that supplies Russian troops to Kharkiv or northern Luhansk. It will also force Russia’s troops to move from other sectors to stop the advance.

This thread provides a nice overview of the available tactical options.

It also appeared to be designed to get Russia to come to the table with reasonable expectations.

The Kursk offensive put pressure on Putin, as Russian civilians were evacuated in the same way that Ukrainians had been for over two years.

Officials in Ukraine have asked Washington for permission to use long-range U.S. ATACMS rockets to strike airfields used by Russia to retaliate. If approved, this could allow Kyiv time to hold a part of Kursk.

Zelensky’s adviser stated that the goal was to give the Russians the leverage they needed for negotiations.

Combat Operations

Sudzah LNG Facility

Strykers in Russia

Destroyed Russian Reinforcement Convoy

Civilians Abandoned

Collateral Damage

What’s next?

Ukraine has about a week to run wild before Russia can gather enough forces in both quantity and quality to stop it. Then Ukraine must decide whether to hold on to its gains and use them as a bargaining tool to obtain a Russian retreat or pull back.

The Russian Army is fully committed to Ukraine and any major force shift will cause a weakness in some area. If the current maps are accurate, they indicate that the Russian troops that attacked Kharkiv last March cannot be supplied due to the cut railway lines in Kursk oblast.

The challenge for Ukraine is to turn a tactical victory and an operational win into something with a strategic impact.

Putin was made to appear ridiculous. He won’t take it lying down, because if a Tsar was not omnipotent then he wasn’t the Tsar. Gerasimov, and the Russian General Staff as a whole, are unlikely to survive this disaster.

This episode also showed a level of operational brilliance no one anticipated. The Ukrainians seem to be stuck in the Soviet-era tactics, just like the Russians. The offensive last summer failed because the high-value equipment had been spread out amongst the old boy’s network, instead of being consolidated. We’ve never seen anything like the tactical flexibility that we’ve witnessed over the past three days. If it doesn’t end in a disaster, and war can be unpredictable, then the Ukrainians will have proven to their NATO tutors that they learned from their mistakes.

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