The country is seeing a significant rise in crime and violence. Officers are leaving the force in many metropolitan areas due to overwhelming crime, lack of prosecution, and exhaustion by the “Defund The Police!” and other demonizing rhetoric. Because of the way their cities have degraded, politicians from mayors to prosecutors are being recalled.
This is why I believe the GOP is winning the midterms. The summer ended with a honeymoon where Democrats got high-profile jobs done. There were no major catastrophes, gas prices were falling, and there was little to no risk of default. Biden’s approval rating has risen, removing a large portion of the 20-point mark. People don’t feel secure anymore. They aren’t secure personally or economically. They worry about their family in many ways.
This is why the GOP has been focusing on more “soft-on-crime” allegations against Democrats in recent weeks. Even Mehmet Oz is the most likely Republican candidate in a swing state to lose. He is now focusing on John Fetterman’s soft-on-crime approach and moving away from the “he’s scared to debate him” rhetoric.
In Pennsylvania, there are close to 1,200 inmates in prison for second-degree murder.
John Fetterman said he wants to “free” every single one of them. All 1,200. pic.twitter.com/62VAzOfjn9
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) September 20, 2022
Arizona and Nevada are both in the Republican party’s sights, with some GOP spending still taking place in deep blue House seats. Immigration is a big concern in Arizona and Nevada. The federal government confirmed that more than 2,000,000 immigrants have crossed the border this fiscal year. The border is overwhelmed and the affected states of the USA along with the rest of the south feel it.
Georgia is a complete loss for Democrats. Stacey Abrams doesn’t appear to have a chance of being governor. The polling is shifting more favorably in Herschel Walker’s favor for Senate. Abrams has attacked law enforcement and Atlanta, the largest city in the state, saw large numbers of its police force leave after the leadership refused to support them.
The GOP’s message to you is clear: What are the crime waves that you’re witnessing? Are you seeing an influx of immigrants in your communities and states? This is on the Democrats.
The Democrats have been so focused on social and cultural issues such as sexual identity, abortion, and climate change, that they have allowed the GOP to dominate the conversation. They are now trying to counter the message of crime and immigration with only weeks remaining before the midterm elections.
The midterms have seen a rise in crime and a spike of Republican-sponsored TV ads attacking Democrats regarding public safety. While abortion and inflation still dominate the campaign trail, crime and public safety are becoming more important. According to AdImpact (an ad-tracking company), the number of GOP TV ads mentioning crime doubled in the last month, to 18% of all Republican ads launched during that period.
Some Democrats have already begun to employ a similar strategy in order to defuse the GOP’s attack on them. Biden tried to take the moral high ground in crime from the “MAGA Republicans,” and argued in a speech in Pennsylvania that “Don’t tell us you support law enforcement if you won’t condemn the events of [January] 6th.” He cited the insurrection at the Capitol. After federal investigators searched the estate of former President Donald Trump for classified documents, Biden condemned calls to “defund the FBI.”
Charlie Kelly, a senior adviser to Everytown, stated that tying gun safety, law enforcement, and crime together “to reset that narrative” will help Democrats move from the defensive. This was particularly true in 2020 when slogans such as “defund police” were used against Democrats across the country.
The problem is, voters, view crime as a major problem and Republicans have a 23 percent edge in polling to determine which party is more trustworthy to deal with the situation.
The Republicans are also benefiting from the fact that immigration stories are outnumbering stories about Trump and the FBI. Trump’s response and the huge attention given to the Mar-a-Lago raid coincide with Democrats’ higher August polling. Voters are shifting their attention now that crime and immigration are again the main focus. With today’s announcement by the Federal Reserve that it will raise the interest rate once again, economic safety will again be at the forefront of voters’ minds.
These are the issues that continue to plague voters, and in turn plague the party in power, because they are being held accountable for all the problems voters are facing.
While Democrats might appear bullish on the outside, there is a real possibility that they are actually very nervous in the back.