Some seats that were once considered safe are now not very safe for suddenly vulnerable Democrats. This has panicked PACs who have moved campaign dollars to protect seats previously invulnerable.
Election 2022 is down to the wire, and things just got real.
Today’s news brings us to deep-blue Oregon where Kurt Schrader, once a shoo-in, is being pushed aside by the Democrat Party. He will be fighting against Republican Amy Ryan Courser. AdImpact (as seen by Josh Kraushaar), party advertising spending in Schrader’s 5th district was moved to the 6th district to support Andrea Salinas and Republican Mike Erickson.
You might think this is a common occurrence.
It doesn’t happen often that Democrats write off a district Presidentish Joe Biden won for 2020 by nine points to shore up a district Biden won by thirteen points.
If the Democrats are using 10-and-up as their new firewall, it’s a problem that I didn’t see coming. Oregon Democrats are further complicated by Tina Kotek, the gubernatorial candidate (who is seeking to replace Kate Brown), who polls consistently behind Republican Christine Drazan.
Is Drazan able to pull off Courser and Erickson’s coattails?
We’ll find out in 19 days, although it is possible to miss coattails due to this being a three-way race.
Oregon could be a unique case, as Portland has been Ground Zero for some of the most outrageous progressive ideas ever put into practice.
On Monday I reported that in Colorado, dark money groups were busy supporting incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet’s senate race, even though he’s eight points ahead of GOP challenger Joe O’Dea.
It’s not that voters will kick Bennet to his death (as he so richly deserved) or make Oregon red. It is important to remember that every dollar spent in Oregon and Colorado on “safe” races is not one spent on close races like Arizona or Georgia.
In the final weeks of the campaign, Democrats will have to spend money in places that they thought were safe like houses.
The Los Angeles Times reported Monday that national Democrats had abandoned Tim Ryan in the Ohio Senate race to defeat J.D. Vance.
Ryan complained last week that Ryan doesn’t have the support of the nation he needs.
Officials from the National Democratic claim that party funding decisions were a matter of hard-nosed calculation and not personal.
Protecting endangered incumbents such as Sens is the party’s first responsibility. They argue that Raphael Warnock is from Georgia and Catherine Cortez Masto is from Nevada.
Republican Adam Laxalt leads Masto by one point in Nevada. Herschel Walker is now leading Warnock, despite his reassuring debate performance.
Monmouth’s generic vote is currently in the lead for Republicans by six points. This is amazing in itself, but even more so when you consider that half of the voters prefer the GOP to the traditional 42- or 43-point ceiling in a winning election year. The Monmouth poll isn’t an anomaly, Hart, Harris, and Rasmussen reporting similar results.
It gets worse. These numbers are for parents:
𝐍𝐄𝐖 𝐏𝐎𝐋𝐋: Republicans hold 𝟲 𝗣𝗢𝗜𝗡𝗧 lead over Democrats on Generic Ballot
Republicans 50% (+6)
⦿ Parents: 64R-29D (𝗥+𝟯𝟱)
⦿ Independents: 52R-40D (R+12)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 20, 2022
Safe Seats My Ass.
R+35 is breaking down because parents, who are more involved in their communities than singles and are more likely to vote, are more likely to be parents.
This is a huge feat, perhaps even unheard of.
This is just a week after Slate stated that Democrats aren’t spending large, but are spending smarter. They have gotten rid of their obsession with lavishing money on unqualified candidates in ruby-red states.
Except, for now, some of these “no-shot” candidates are located in sapphire Blue districts.
Let’s end today’s column by adding yet another non-sequitur from you-know-who.
Biden, in Pittsburgh, to @giselefetterman:
“Gisele, you’re going to be a great, great lady in the Senate.”
— Seung Min Kim (@seungminkim) October 20, 2022
Everyone knows that Giselle is the de facto presidential candidate.
Nobody knows what Joe’s doing, especially Joe.
Joe Biden got lost again.
— Greg Price (@greg_price11) October 20, 2022
Happy warriors, keep your cool. Although I am not cocky about November 8, the Democrats have me feeling positive.