Senate Now Rated a Toss-up After Most Primaries Have Been Held

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The race to control the U.S. Senate is in its final stretch. After almost all of the primaries have been held both Republicans and Democrats can make a case that they have a good chance of winning the upper chamber.

This election is difficult to read. The battle for Senate control is a tossup according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Others believe the Republicans hold a one- or two-seat advantage.

Republicans will have a difficult time winning the Senate, even in a red wave election. Republicans have defended 21 of the 35 seats on the table, while Democrats only have 14 of them. All of these seats are located in states that voted in President Joe Biden in 2020. This restricts the offensive possibilities for Republicans.

There are many incumbents that are seen as vulnerable due to a variety reasons. Raphael Warnock won the special election in Georgia, which most observers still consider a red state. Mark Kelly is also running in Arizona for re-election. The GOP would be in control if either or both of these states were to lose.

In Nevada, Catherine Cortez Masto is going to have to fight the strong challenge from state AG Adam Laxalt.

Wisconsin’s Ron Johnson, a Republican candidate for the office of Lt. Governor, is currently in a highly competitive race. Mandela Barnes. In Pennsylvania, Democratic Lieutenant Governor. John Fetterman gives Mehmet Oz, a newcomer, all he has.

The GOP can afford to lose either of these two seats. It will be difficult to knock off Democrats from states won by Joe Biden. How can Republicans make it possible when they have so few candidates?

Sabato:

It is possible that this slate of Republican candidates lacks any previous officeholding experience. This is, at least in part, due to voter choice. It is also about the candidate choices, namely the decision to run or not. Potentially strong GOP candidates such as Govs. Doug Ducey (R–AZ), Larry Hogan(R-MD) and Chris Sununu, (R–NH), all opted not to run; several Republican House members and/or statewide elected Republicans from states like Ohio or Pennsylvania also opted against running. It’s also about Trump’s choices: If he hadn’t pushed Walker to run for Georgia, it would seem like the primary would have been larger and more traditional. Trump also torpedoed Mark Brnovich, Arizona’s state attorney general, who came in third place in Tuesday’s primary ahead of candidates with no previous office-holding experience.

Trump would argue that Trump won the presidency in 2016 without any political experience. Trump would also point out that there is a benefit to not having any political experience. There are no records for your opponent to attack.

We will hear the same message from Republicans this cycle: a nationalizing message made possible by experience at federal office. It goes something like this: “[Democrat X] votes [somevery high percentage] of time with Joe Biden.” U.S. Reps. Val Demings in Florida and Tim Ryan in Ohio are also running in races that we consider competitive. FiveThirtyEight’s count of the number of members voting for or against President Biden, a source Republicans have cited in their ads, shows how the six Democratic incumbents and two challengers to the House scored: 94% (Arizona’s Kelly), 98% [Colorado’s Bennet], 100% (Florida’s Demings], 96% (“Georgia’s Warnock”) 92% (Nevada’s Cortez Masto”) 96% (New Hampshire’san), 100%

Experience is not all that it seems in this day and age, where both Senate members and House members are directed, guided, and ordered about by more knowledgeable staff.

The national media are forced to be gossip mongers because they don’t have a track record. Is it really worth the attention of Herschel Walker for fumbling a bit on his resume? It is amazing to see what national reporters think voters consider important.

The Senate election is expected to be won by the Republicans, although the margin has been dropping in recent weeks. Given the high expectations set by Republican consultants and fundraisers, this was to be expected. This is still a country that is close to 50-50, and the Senate will likely reflect that.