The Kremlin was awash with self-satisfaction on Wednesday after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Mongolia earlier in the week went off without a glitch – despite the International Criminal Court arrest warrant that hung over the trip.
Putin received the red carpet treatment, met with his Mongolian counterpart, and discussed bilateral and trade relations. The country knows it needs its investment, but won’t hesitate to invade Ukraine.
What is the real benefit for the Kremlin here? The leader of the group was not detained.
As a member state of the International Criminal Court, Mongolia was obliged to arrest and hold Putin when he landed in Mongolia Monday night. He has been the subject of an ICC arrest warrant since March 2023 on charges of war crimes related to the illegal deportation of children from Ukraine into Russia.
The Kremlin claims it does not recognize the ICC’s warrant, and Mongolia, when Putin made a state visit to Ulaanbaatar chose to ignore their obligations to arrest him, putting them in hot water with both the court and Ukraine, as well as its European allies.
The Kremlin, fresh from the success that was the visit, during which Putin, Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khulelsukh, signed agreements concerning energy and petroleum products supplies, the construction of a power station, and environmental protection, said that institutions such as the ICC would not be able curtail Russia’s relationship with the “global minority.”
According to Google translated comments by Russian state-run news agency Tass, Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stated that “this whole story with ICC… can and will not be a limit in the development of Russia’s relations with partner countries who are interested in developing binational relations and covering international contact.”
He added, “The global majority has a broader view of the prospects of international cooperation than those who are blinded by the ICC.”
Peskov concluded there was “great global interest in the country.”
He said, “We are also interested.”
Analysts claim that economically fragile Mongolia was forced to choose between complying with the ICC decision and strengthening lucrative ties with Russia, its powerful neighbor on which it relies heavily for oil and natural gas. Mongolia is on the proposed route of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline connecting Russia and China, its two biggest trading partners.
Russia, heavily sanctioned for its war in Ukraine by the West, has sought to undermine Western and global institutions. This was also achieved by the trip to Mongolia.
Elena Davlikanova is a Democracy Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis. She commented on Monday in an analysis that the fact that Mongolia chose not to comply with its obligations towards the ICC was “the clearest possible demonstration of Western powerlessness when faced with Kremlin Realpolitik.”
Putin will be delighted by this, as he has a total disdain for rules-based political systems. Russia is determined to win at any cost, no matter what the consequences. She added that the West and the institutions it helped build lack the same determination or focus.
Max Hess of the Foreign Policy Research Institute stated that the trip to Mongolia was a symbol of success for Russia, rather than one of strategic or tactical importance. However, there has been no official announcement of major economic projects in Mongolia such as the Power of Siberia 2 Pipeline.
He said that the visit of Vladimir Putin to Mongolia was a major effort by Putin in his attempts to undermine international order.
Hess pointed out that the real story is that the Power of Siberia 2 Pipeline, which was supposed to pass through Mongolia, has yet to be announced. “Putin is keen to challenge the parts of international order related to economy in particular because these are the bases for the sanctions that are so effective against the regime,” Hess said.
On Tuesday, a Mongolian government spokeswoman told the news website Politico that the country is in a tough position because of its energy dependency on Russia.
“Mongolia imports over 20% of its electricity and 95% of its petrol products from our immediate neighbors, who have suffered technical interruptions in the past. The supply is vital to our survival and the existence of our people,” the spokesperson said.
