The Republican Party is leading in a running average of Generic Congressional Ballot votes for the first time since September’s beginning, when polling began to surge across the country.
The RealClearPolitics polling data shows that Republicans are up 0.4% over Democrats. Democrats had regained the lead on September 1.
From August to September, Democrats enjoyed a wave of news stories that focused on a legislative achievement and gas prices falling. The Dobbs decision was likely to have energized Democratic voter, as would be reflected in the polls. However, recent polls show that many polls are shifting back to the Republican Party, including an Economist/YouGov poll that is typically Democratic-friendly, which we reported earlier today.
The problem is not that Democrats are falling, as shown in the RCP graph. They are about the same as they were throughout the month with a slight dip in recent days. The GOP’s September 16th average was its lowest. The GOP’s fortunes have steadily improved over the years.
The polls began reflecting the September inflation report’s reactions on September 17.
These are the issues that will decide the election, as we’ve repeatedly said and repeated on my radio show (excuse me for the shameless promotion). Voters will be voting on these “kitchen table” issues, in which families are concerned about the economy, money, crime, and other national issues that have a significant local impact. They are more concerned about inflation and the cost of groceries for their families than they are about abortion. They care more about crime and banning drag queen storytime than they do about crime.
The Democrats’ final message will be to rally their base. They are focusing their attention on the issue of abortion and sexual identity. They bring up Donald Trump, January 6, and other issues. All of this is on the margin for most voters, with the majority more in the middle. What party is in control when crime waves hit major cities, and gas prices are on the rise at an average dollar per gallon than they were one year ago? What party is in control when inflation is affecting everyone’s pocketbooks?
In the Generic Congressional Polls, Democrats hover around 45 percent. They have not broken that barrier in over a year. The Republicans have seen a dramatic rise in recent months. They are surpassing the Democrats’ ceiling.
There are just over a months left. It is possible for anything to happen. The Democrats have yet to come up with a message that transcends the 45 percent. This is a huge problem for Democrats going forward.