The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s (DSCC) inability to spend enough money — or even not spending any — to keep Sherrod Brown in his Ohio Senate seat makes it more likely that Republicans are going pick up a key Senate seat.
Look at what seems to be going wrong.
Ohio’s State of Play
Recent Napolitan News polling of Ohio voters shows that both Bernie Moreno and Donald Trump are very popular. Moreno appears to be in the lead, with 48 percent of support to Brown’s 46. RealClearPolitics’ average shows Brown as the leader, but it is based on older polling data.
📊 OHIO POLL: @RMG_Research
Senate
🟥 Bernie Moreno: 48%
🟦 Sherrod Brown: 46%
—
President
🟥 Donald Trump: 54%
🟦 Kamala Harris: 43%
—
#60 (2.3/3.0) | 757 LV | 9/18-20 | ±3.5%https://t.co/WaZP2qhGyr pic.twitter.com/cEAqXkuh99— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 25, 2024
Trump’s results are very positive, as he has a huge 11-point advantage over Kamala, which is in line with RCP’s average. A PAC that supports Kamala has released an ad criticizing Trump. This is probably an attempt to reduce Trump’s lead by playing up the “cats and dogs” story.
Money
The Democrat Senatorial Campaign Committee is responsible for spending big to win or keep Senate seats. In races where incumbents are running, such as Sherrod and Ohio. One thing is certain: The DSCC does not seem to spend any money in Ohio. Zilch. Nada. They don’t even have any money.
Groups backing Republican Bernie Moreno in the #OHSen race are now outspending the groups backing Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown $89.9 million to $22.5 million. https://t.co/oRr8kThn9g pic.twitter.com/pQrkce5fup
— Rob Pyers (@rpyers) September 24, 2024
The DSCC is spending a lot of money to keep Brown’s seat. The committee has spent money in Montana where Republican Tim Sheehy, who is favored to defeat the Democrat incumbent Jon Tester, is spending.
In battleground Senate ad spending, Republican advertisers continue to hold a future reservation advantage in #OHSen and #PASen, but Democrats maintain advantages in #AZSen, #MISen, #MTSen, #NVSen, and #WISen. pic.twitter.com/8WAnwcfomA
— AdImpact Politics (@AdImpact_Pol) September 25, 2024
Bottom line: It appears that the Democrats are shifting their resources from Ohio to Montana.
The Players in Ohio
The DSCC doesn’t spend a dime in Ohio. But what about its GOP counterpart, the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee? It appears that they are spending nominal amounts to support Moreno. Mitch McConnell’s Senate Leadership Fund and the associated PACs are taking up the slack. Mitch McConnell is focused on regaining the Republican majority by picking up a few more seats. Moreno benefits from this generosity.
The Senate Majority PAC has invested nearly $20 million in the Ohio Senate race. This is only one-third of the money they promised to spend on Brown. SMP appears to be withholding money from Ohio for places such as Montana and Pennsylvania where Republican Dave McCormick gives Democrat incumbent Bob Casey a good run for his money.
Next Moves
On the Senate chessboard, it seems that Democrats are running out of options. They seem to have given up on Sherrod brown with less than six weeks until Election Day. Jon Tester could soon be in the same boat. What’s next for them? They’re reportedly looking to expand their playing field into Florida and Texas to knock off Republicans Rick Scott, Ted Cruz, and others.
The math doesn’t favor the Democrats at this time. They are going to lose Joe Manchin in West Virginia. They seem to have given up on Ohio. Montana could be close behind. By focusing on Scott and Cruz, they are relying upon Trump’s support waning in these states. Chuck Schumer will not be happy that Democrats are essentially rigged in this Senate election. Conservatives should be happy about this, as the GOP’s majority in the Senate will make them happy regardless of whether Trump wins the presidential election.
